Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd41069925b53e2e03f34e5ecd9b102d34443f51104ccf31b4e70eeb6abe481dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 26c | 1,232$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.16 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 613.52$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 596.69$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 586.19$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 511.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 80c | 430.11$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 393.63$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 375.81$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 322.04$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 32c | 313.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.65 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 293.89$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 292.41$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.47 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 288.17$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 275.88$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 261$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 260.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 72c | 195.13$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.76 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 193.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 58c | 189.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 50c | 177.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 45c | 175$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 172.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 65c | 154.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 148.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked Yes | 77c | 148.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 139.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 130.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 78c | 125.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 40c | 120.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 51c | 116.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 36c | 110.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 47c | 105.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 101.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 54c | 100.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 50c | 100.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 46c | 94.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 94.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 39c | 94.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 92.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 43c | 87.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 40c | 83.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf3…b84abacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 68.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 65.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 64.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 62.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 73c | 60.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 45c | 60.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 42c | 59.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 26c | 56.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked No | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 50c | 48.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 42c | 47.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 53c | 46.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 38c | 46.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 50c | 45.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 47c | 43.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 43.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 68c | 42.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 52c | 41.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 40.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…ac69backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 44c | 39.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 75c | 38.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 37.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 34.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 34.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 34c | 31.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 31.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 49c | 30.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 30.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…f09abacked Yes | 54c | 29.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 28.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d94…c0dfbacked Yes | 39c | 26.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 23.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…146dbacked Yes | 45c | 22.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.