Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40bf8d37125ca31de274f4a43a75b44584c98052b829020a03647070f1af0f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 54c | 2,715$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.14 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 786.81$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 62c | 700.54$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.4 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 635.02$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 43c | 579.5$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.19 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 33c | 468$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 27c | 444.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.75 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 46c | 386.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 371.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 361.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 28c | 340.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.89 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 327.93$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 320.87$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 39c | 301.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 284.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 44c | 277.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.22 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 261.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 64c | 255.37$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 254.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 238.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 232.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 51c | 228.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 46c | 211$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 206$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 195.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 180.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 76c | 172.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 46c | 157.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 45c | 154.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 154$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 48c | 139.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…4024backed Yes | 37c | 135.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 133.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 48c | 125.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 49c | 122.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 120.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 73c | 115.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 112.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 110.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea4…4a77backed Yes | 67c | 107.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 102.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 75c | 101.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 100.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 99.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 92.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 78c | 92.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 90.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 36c | 86.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 60c | 83.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 82.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce1…3a27backed No | 39c | 82.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 31c | 80.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 78.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 76.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 46c | 70.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…8efdbacked Yes | 59c | 69.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 30c | 65.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 64.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked Yes | 53c | 64.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked Yes | 38c | 61.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 65c | 60.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 63c | 60.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 41c | 57.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 47c | 55.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 30c | 53.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 52.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4d…2adbbacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 42c | 46.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 71c | 46.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 67c | 45.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked Yes | 42c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…6f7bbacked Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 43.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…d760backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 76c | 39.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 61c | 39.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 39.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.