TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MIBRof MIBR, Lynn Vision
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Lynn Vision45c29,066$13,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,069.641,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed MIBR63c15,900$10,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,88333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Lynn Vision23c15,785$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,556.745,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Lynn Vision48c9,532$4,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,575.0241040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked MIBR47c8,238$3,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,352.89248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked MIBR56c7,996$4,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,502.583,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Lynn Vision20c6,582$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.5230726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed MIBR57c6,000$3,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,572.754,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked MIBR57c5,865$3,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.4825655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Lynn Vision1c5,801$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559335.5%33 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed MIBR56c4,748$2,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.1210359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed Lynn Vision9c3,550$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3089040%36 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Lynn Vision4c3,102$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.07575.3%3 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Lynn Vision39c2,592$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.5588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Lynn Vision39c2,550$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.831,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Lynn Vision37c2,464$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.671,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed MIBR52c2,431$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.6810452.9%55 W · 49 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed MIBR63c2,211$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.011,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c58…f3c7backed MIBR51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.782751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Lynn Vision38c1,960$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.6851252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Lynn Vision43c1,632$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.781,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Lynn Vision37c1,593$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.9787047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Lynn Vision2c1,552$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5232832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked MIBR56c1,383$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.6275245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Lynn Vision41c1,381$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.1221854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ffd…d27cbacked MIBR62c1,213$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.792055%11 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MIBR59c1,203$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.1498052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed Lynn Vision1c1,203$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0925416.9%43 W · 211 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Lynn Vision37c1,186$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.5237145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked MIBR66c1,137$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.514,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Lynn Vision54c1,062$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.4614151.8%73 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked MIBR49c999.99$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.9981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Lynn Vision39c951.68$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.511,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Lynn Vision21c930.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked MIBR80c905$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18140950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de0…7429backed MIBR57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1910556.2%59 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Lynn Vision23c826.16$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.091,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Lynn Vision29c749.97$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9958254.3%316 W · 266 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MIBR78c711.43$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.451,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked MIBR46c710.64$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.753860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed MIBR58c690.98$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.9834848.3%168 W · 180 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Lynn Vision20c653.75$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.143,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lynn Vision10c560.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.073,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed MIBR63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18585851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked MIBR62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19049849.6%247 W · 251 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x996c…b6ecbacked MIBR48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26018860.1%113 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Lynn Vision38c499.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed MIBR63c498.77$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.9136749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Lynn Vision14c496.11$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.522,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MIBR71c492.53$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.26,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Lynn Vision39c487.18$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19032542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lynn Vision51c486.31$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.025,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x757d…1496backed Lynn Vision54c464.07$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.624649.6%122 W · 124 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Lynn Vision37c459.09$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.084,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c0…1002backed MIBR57c422.21$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.216762.7%42 W · 25 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Lynn Vision19c418.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.112,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Lynn Vision19c408.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6416311.7%19 W · 144 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed MIBR65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14013550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Lynn Vision31c398.58$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.831,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Lynn Vision31c388.45$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4226336.5%96 W · 167 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Lynn Vision39c369.92$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.351,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Lynn Vision11c349.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3541716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0938…4e4cbacked MIBR58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.835641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1378…dbd2backed MIBR60c338.33$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3310658.5%62 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed MIBR46c329.77$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9538650.8%196 W · 190 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Lynn Vision37c325.19$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.552,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed MIBR62c310.85$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1223161.5%142 W · 89 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed Lynn Vision12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3641645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Lynn Vision53c290$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.778348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed MIBR47c288.53$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9235953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9700…798fbacked Lynn Vision43c281.32$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8512852.3%67 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed MIBR59c271$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2552449%257 W · 267 L-27.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed MIBR63c253.97$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9742057.6%242 W · 178 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Lynn Vision22c250$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5646042.8%197 W · 263 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Lynn Vision21c247.81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0478043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed MIBR50c242$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1218053.8%43 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Lynn Vision49c232.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6980740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked MIBR60c224.12$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6591945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked MIBR65c223.2$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.253034.7%184 W · 346 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8983…d301backed MIBR73c219.16$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.178061.3%49 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Lynn Vision33c212.88$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.833,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed MIBR48c210.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4311048.2%53 W · 57 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x483a…01d6backed MIBR47c209.43$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11120349.3%100 W · 103 L-12.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Lynn Vision48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.632,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Lynn Vision16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.651,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Lynn Vision15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked MIBR63c197.73$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1635466.1%234 W · 120 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed MIBR45c192$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.628943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cf8…75e4backed Lynn Vision53c189.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002917.2%5 W · 24 L-7.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-63.2%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Lynn Vision37c183.67$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6549935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Lynn Vision55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035344.8%158 W · 195 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed MIBR57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4453850.6%272 W · 266 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Lynn Vision40c175$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7037232.5%121 W · 251 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x266a…3579backed MIBR56c166.16$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.113732.4%12 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed MIBR61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9337850.3%190 W · 188 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5024…b8bcbacked MIBR57c154.39$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.393070%21 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde7f…d8dbbacked Lynn Vision27c151.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120744%91 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac78…83cdbacked Lynn Vision18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Lynn Vision47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.591743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Lynn Vision39c141.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5550050.6%253 W · 247 L+2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.