Fifa International · resolved market
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4183e510eda2987136ff65ea627bfbd860da2ab1c82d0f9b8425a61ae91645ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes | 3c | 9,552$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.43 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…7cb2backed Yes | 3c | 9,167$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…1002backed Yes | 3c | 4,600$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 249 | 17.7%44 W · 205 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,518$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,420$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…7c09backed Yes | 2c | 1,307$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 781 | 0.5%4 W · 777 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 2c | 577.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…5e72backed Yes | 7c | 554.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…fb7fbacked Yes | 3c | 365.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba2…d17abacked Yes | 7c | 343.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…3fd0backed Yes | 7c | 298.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182c…64d3backed Yes | 5c | 251.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Erling Haaland: 3+ goalsthis page
- Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goalsNo won
- Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
- Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 1+ assistsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 1+ goalsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 1+ shotsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 2+ assistsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 2+ goalsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 2+ shotsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 2+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 3+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 4+ shotsYes won
- Igor Thiago: 1+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ shotsYes won
- Matheus Cunha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ shotsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shotsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shotsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.