Fifa International · resolved market
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51b51cb7622f4d355dc2af718cf325a80e7d356ae1ed81ab2b2511b361cd97ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 44c | 3,001$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.37 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 56c | 2,951$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.37 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c4…1018backed No | 55c | 773.7$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.33 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…6a80backed Yes | 38c | 256$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 59c | 233.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…601dbacked No | 62c | 208.29$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +11.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b8…3f4ebacked No | 55c | 199.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…e8c6backed Yes | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…7a15backed Yes | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…7745backed Yes | 45c | 147.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Yes | 36c | 77.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb446…2daabacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…ea34backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 42.3%94 W · 128 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…8807backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…2081backed Yes | 45c | 44.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf599…e460backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a0…ff28backed Yes | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked No | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shotsthis page
- Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goalsNo won
- Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goalsNo won
- Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
- Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 1+ assistsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 1+ goalsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 1+ shotsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 2+ assistsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 2+ goalsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 2+ shotsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 2+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 3+ goalsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 3+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 4+ shotsYes won
- Igor Thiago: 1+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ shotsYes won
- Matheus Cunha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ shotsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shotsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shotsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.