Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42114bdbeb192ea11d54ec2760ac60e72e9947c8523925c16f48a4fc9075c010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 8c | 1,196$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 13c | 982.24$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 67c | 880.6$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.6 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 861.5$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 20c | 858.47$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 26c | 840.21$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 11c | 724.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 678.31$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 63c | 629.49$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 30c | 535.66$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 493.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…87d4backed Yes | 30c | 492$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 55c | 434.86$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 8c | 409.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 37c | 404.31$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.69 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 11c | 399.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…34c0backed Yes | 38c | 304.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 5c | 300.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 45c | 287.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.23 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 36c | 279.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 259.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 12c | 257$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 11c | 251.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 25c | 249.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 237.68$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 224.03$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 60c | 223.74$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 206.18$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 203.66$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 203.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 79c | 200.91$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 9c | 198.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 183.72$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 25c | 179.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 46c | 172.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 30c | 172.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…3643backed Yes | 12c | 171.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +195.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 11c | 164$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 148.69$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 22c | 148$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 35c | 144.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 29c | 134$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 13c | 133.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 130.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 122.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 68c | 121$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 120.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 26c | 117.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 109.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 67c | 108$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 90.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 69c | 87.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…8b4dbacked No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 14c | 78.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 77.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes | 20c | 75.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 24c | 74.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 70.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…d62abacked Yes | 23c | 70.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 68.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 64c | 68.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 23c | 65.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 26c | 62.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 58.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…49d2backed Yes | 23c | 58.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 72c | 56.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 62c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…2cfabacked Yes | 60c | 53.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 50.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 43.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…ee29backed No | 47c | 42.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…230bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 35c | 41.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 56c | 41.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…3fecbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 76c | 39.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 50c | 34.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 47c | 32.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.