Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb70ad18181e08e1b8090b7f82f2b0c78e7194b56d6ee1701485e3df2e0594fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,354$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 1c | 9,581$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f28…49d6backed Yes | 60c | 3,248$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 56c | 1,602$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.76 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 1,320$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 27c | 1,203$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.16 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 1,022$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.41 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 893.23$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.15 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 751.68$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 46c | 723.13$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.99 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 700.09$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.71 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 685.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 43c | 674.33$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.06 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 621.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 563.77$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 39c | 527.13$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.05 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…5b8cbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…87d4backed Yes | 49c | 492$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 47c | 478.17$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.91 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 452.88$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 61c | 448.94$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.59 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 50c | 433.16$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.53 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 25c | 420.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.16 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 44c | 414.07$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.84 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 55c | 408.3$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.65 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 407.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…34c0backed Yes | 46c | 402.86$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.07 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 373$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 347$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 339.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 49c | 329.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 62c | 317$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 298.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 297.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 291.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 290$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 279.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 38c | 270$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 253$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 236.02$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 32c | 221.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 46c | 219.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 60c | 211.4$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 45c | 208.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 24c | 207.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 186.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 8c | 183.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 183.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 176.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 173$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 71c | 165.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 61c | 165.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 164.23$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 160.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…8232backed Yes | 46c | 153.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 42c | 144.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 51c | 140.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 134.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 123.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 65c | 117$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 50c | 115.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 37c | 104.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 37c | 102.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b9…9772backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 98.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 98.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 96.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 96.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 23c | 94.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…a483backed Yes | 54c | 92.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 90.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f9…b030backed Yes | 48c | 88.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 83.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af2…214cbacked No | 60c | 82.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 32c | 82.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 27c | 82.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 79.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 74c | 79.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 66c | 76.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 43c | 76.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 62c | 74.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 71.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 45c | 70.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.