Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e828e5f986acb2707b6dfb6d1809d41415aedf73eaab13903ac5618d74e7e55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 31c | 1,665$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.79 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 1,451$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 32c | 1,043$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.93 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 21c | 984.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.03 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 871.23$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 800.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 754.02$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 22c | 670.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.79 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 30c | 639.64$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.55 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 19c | 627.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 21c | 617.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.3 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 20c | 536.93$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.93 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 534.37$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.34 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 20c | 517.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.41 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 474$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.38 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 21c | 458.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.5 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 440.96$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 71c | 395.6$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…34c0backed Yes | 42c | 370.96$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 367$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 366.97$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 358.69$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 320.35$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 32c | 313.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 35c | 307.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.71 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 37c | 268.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 263.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 262$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 37c | 260.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 26c | 259.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.17 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 246.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 41c | 244.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 30c | 240$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…8232backed Yes | 25c | 238.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 234.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 38c | 226.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.49 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 22c | 200.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.98 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 193.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 192.71$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 19c | 173.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 66c | 159.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -64%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 79c | 157$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…5b8cbacked Yes | 20c | 154.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 79c | 151.11$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 148.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.32 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 32c | 143.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 17c | 141.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 139.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…248cbacked Yes | 15c | 137.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 136.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 136$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 128$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 33c | 127.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 127.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 118.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 58c | 116.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 34c | 116.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 113.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 112.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 36c | 105.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 38c | 105.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 36c | 102.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 39c | 101.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 98.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 97.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 25c | 91.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 22c | 85.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 16c | 81.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed No | 74c | 79.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 78.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 48c | 76.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 38c | 76.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 61c | 75.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 20c | 71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 72c | 70.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…47c6backed Yes | 36c | 68.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +133%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 67.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 66.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 62c | 65.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 57c | 63.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 26c | 62.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 60.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 60.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 60.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 63c | 59.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.