MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42288492a2528d10d36ea963f782962c3a380d9aa4abd5f59aefcb42e9d845b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $265,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 50c | 236,949$118,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118,474.48 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 145,747$72,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,873.5 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 40,054$19,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,937.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Over | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 50c | 15,609$7,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,804.56 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 10,483$4,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,840.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,599.95 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 3,804$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 2,259$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.44 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 1,901$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.77 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 1,530$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 50c | 1,469$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.47 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 55c | 1,111$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.95 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 1,007$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Under | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 979.32$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.12 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 49c | 738.67$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.72 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 48c | 720$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 624.98$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.49 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 575.5$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.73 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 47c | 522.21$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.95 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 45c | 342.27$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 53c | 282.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 231.12$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 219.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 39c | 208.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 193$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 50c | 134.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 119.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 115.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 49c | 113.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 34c | 102.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 53c | 94.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 45c | 68.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…d962backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 50c | 34.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 29.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 25.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.