MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd88fb4142e02f476f1cfec822be65a4f017f9e5e32c60dde2e2829dbd7a5efb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Over | 54c | 26,701$14,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,509.64 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 43c | 14,302$6,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,152.38 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 9,485$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,169.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 5,700$2,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 5,097$2,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,896.45 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 53c | 2,500$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 1,494$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.48 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 1,081$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.02 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 45c | 986.6$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.63 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +16.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 45c | 661.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.83 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 614.73$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.81 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 55c | 439.2$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.56 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 403.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 392.96$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 50c | 374.03$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.66 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 55c | 362.2$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.59 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 46c | 304.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.46 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 58c | 299.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.71 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 47c | 299.14$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.54 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 58c | 279.2$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.06 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 48c | 223.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 64c | 221.01$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 214.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 55c | 202$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 176.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 142.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 37c | 136$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 55c | 123.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 123.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 46c | 116$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Over | 65c | 114.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 49c | 109.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 104.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 79.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 54c | 75.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 46c | 73.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 48c | 48.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 25c | 46.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…0f4cbacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 43.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under | 48c | 32.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 44c | 32.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 44c | 31.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 58c | 29.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 57c | 28.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…f991backed Under | 62c | 26.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…af5dbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 50c | 25.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…9d69backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…d962backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 68c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 62c | 17.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.