World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43e97199743f4b7c11dacd62fcb953a3c2772690a7b5b154ed5785db4fe73161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 20c | 807.43$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.91 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 22c | 771.8$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.81 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 638.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.69 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 12c | 399.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 14c | 347.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.9 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 18c | 320.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.46 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 16c | 240.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 233.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.53 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 47c | 214.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked No | 78c | 191.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 182.49$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 56c | 179.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 176.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 175.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 165.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.22 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 162.06$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 16c | 156.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.54 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 149.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 139.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 18c | 135.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 14c | 130.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 13c | 113.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 13c | 112.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 26c | 108.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 12c | 104.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 13c | 103.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 101$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 26c | 100.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +214%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 99.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed Yes | 17c | 95.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +485.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 94.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 13c | 89.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 85.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 84.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed Yes | 32c | 83.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 82.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 17c | 81.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 35cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 80.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 78c | 79.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 79.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 18c | 75.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 71.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 68.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 66.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 26c | 56.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 55.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 23c | 52.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 21c | 50.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed No | 80c | 49.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 26c | 46.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 28c | 42.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 79c | 39.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…9913backed No | 78c | 36.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 78cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 77c | 31.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +123%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 30.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 30.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644a…356dbacked No | 80c | 26.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 70c | 25.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…4796backed Yes | 60c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 21.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 68c | 19.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 78c | 18.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 13.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.