World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa424050a650c364eb4cfa6347e8248cde73dc6af5279ac9b20f56bcabb9cbc84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes | 2c | 4,086$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 974.96$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 46c | 898.98$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 676.17$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.84 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 667.85$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.95 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 555.57$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.47 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 54c | 463.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 34c | 313.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.18 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 62c | 310.03$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.84 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 266.49$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 29c | 259.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.1 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 18c | 258.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 48c | 256.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed No | 27c | 249.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed Yes | 63c | 238.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 228.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.51 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 227.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 214.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 205.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 62c | 201$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 197.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 180.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 170.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.95 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 169.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 56c | 155.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 153.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 150.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 121.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 119.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 118.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 116.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 58c | 107.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 106.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 16c | 105.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 64c | 104.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 47c | 102.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 100.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 51c | 98.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 98.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 97.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 96.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 96.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…4796backed Yes | 74c | 95.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 50c | 94.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 94.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 36c | 93.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 27c | 89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 30c | 84.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 84.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 24c | 80.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 80.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 78.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 75.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 74.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 58c | 71.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfa…b54ebacked Yes | 76c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 69.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 68.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 75c | 67.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 65.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 56c | 61.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 67c | 60.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 74c | 56.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 55.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 36c | 53.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 53.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 30c | 52.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 27c | 50.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…2429backed No | 57c | 50.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…aff0backed Yes | 56c | 49.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 48.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 58c | 43.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 46c | 43.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 55c | 43.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 76c | 42.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…e1b5backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 54c | 40.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 76c | 40.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…9913backed Yes | 80c | 39.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 78cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.