Premier League · resolved market
Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44145a02708895d218a22c36f2b4b54376d773614e7cf76fdad4856b0ccc0c93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 53c | 16,617$8,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,786.2 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 3,937$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.76 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 34c | 2,995$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.11 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 66c | 2,120$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 47c | 1,947$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.89 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 1,611$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.63 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 49c | 1,191$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 46c | 1,187$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.89 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.39 | 173 | 39.9%69 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 839.56$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.18 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 143 | 54.5%78 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 170 | 62.4%106 W · 64 L | +13.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 28c | 347.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 19c | 312.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.32 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 47c | 312$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 51c | 256$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 208.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 79c | 202$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.58 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 55c | 149.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 8c | 147.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Over | 52c | 111.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 78c | 108.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -10.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 54c | 98.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Under | 50c | 96.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 17c | 93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 91.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 543 | 40.5%220 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 48c | 78.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 31c | 68.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 48c | 55.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 146 | 58.2%85 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.