Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x441755a0b4fc6feaadd7168b03e50373f702a2846c2e5dd2e18347efd23f045f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 1,083$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 888.69$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 614.13$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 544.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 19c | 534.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 33c | 347.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 285.15$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 18c | 263.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 44c | 250.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 245.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed Yes | 15c | 236.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 225.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…c35fbacked Yes | 14c | 181.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 162.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 16c | 130.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 62c | 125.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 117$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 113.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 19c | 100.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 20c | 99.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 96.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 12c | 94.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 94.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 88.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 43c | 72.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 71.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…2a37backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 64.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 63.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 63.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 62.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 62.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 57.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 50.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 24c | 46.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 30c | 43.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 26c | 42.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 42.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 34.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 34.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 35c | 31.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 29.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 29.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 28.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 59c | 27.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 26.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 25.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…d14abacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 61c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 55c | 19.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.