Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de340f075224a95630b3e33359be81e74959cc7202a0a72f3827a293b8c25f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 69c | 819.78$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.65 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 743.72$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 45c | 627.32$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 36c | 587.63$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.55 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 37c | 489.94$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 476$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 31c | 468.9$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 70c | 426.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.18 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 71c | 422.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 66c | 374.53$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.28 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 63c | 306$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 37c | 294.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 286.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 9c | 281$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 264.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 259.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 225.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.26 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 220.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 32c | 203.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 177.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 69c | 159.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed No | 16c | 158.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 37c | 150.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 60c | 145.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 136.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 74c | 135.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 71c | 124.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 21c | 102.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 71c | 98.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 21c | 97.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 96.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked No | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 25c | 93.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 93.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 89.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 89.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 66c | 83.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 80.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes | 78c | 80.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 63c | 75.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 68c | 73.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 34c | 72.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 71.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 69.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 79c | 68.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 37c | 64.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 63.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 80c | 63.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 47c | 62.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 45c | 62.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 79c | 61.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 66c | 60.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 77c | 55.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 50c | 54.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 64c | 54.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 51.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 60c | 47.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 37c | 46.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…91adbacked Yes | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 54c | 44.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 65c | 44.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 52c | 44.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 34c | 42.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 25c | 42.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 63c | 40.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 63c | 40.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 40.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed No | 28c | 40.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 72c | 39.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 37.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041a…656dbacked Yes | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e20…06c5backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 66c | 32.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked Yes | 77c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 47c | 31.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 78c | 27.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 26.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.