MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44817fda235e10be5c8e86cacdfb94ca345b7d62053ad6fe2277da730f2c80b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 6,591$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 6,458$3,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,174.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 1,204$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.69 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 562.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 56c | 521.23$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 499.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 50c | 302.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 50c | 300.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 75c | 267.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.61 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 49c | 262.42$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 47c | 244.18$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Over | 43c | 198.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Under | 60c | 163.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 78c | 118$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Over | 22c | 109.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 49c | 102.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 25c | 95.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 40c | 92.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Over | 60c | 78.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 71.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Over | 72c | 69.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 74c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 76c | 63.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 62.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…54ebbacked Under | 48c | 62.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 65c | 58.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Over | 54c | 55.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 42c | 50.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Over | 50c | 45.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…2ae8backed Over | 44c | 45.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 72c | 40.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 28c | 40.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 78c | 34.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…722ebacked Over | 50c | 29.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 27.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 50c | 23.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…fdaabacked Over | 71c | 23.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 55c | 21.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 70c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 78c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.