MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe566045314f1dd953e93e300843913812d3b47690f4dcf9dbc1aa4e05a91f4d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Athletics | 65c | 15,000$9,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 9,978$3,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,481.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 6,568$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 58c | 1,904$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.62 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 1,573$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Athletics | 55c | 709.06$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.08 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Athletics | 73c | 686.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Athletics | 70c | 678.91$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.91 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 670.88$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Athletics | 69c | 389.8$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Athletics | 29c | 353.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.12 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…2c69backed Athletics | 74c | 301.3$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 55c | 262.93$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 255.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…5eb3backed Los Angeles Angels | 37c | 218.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 194.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 183.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles Angels | 40c | 172.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Athletics | 78c | 165.87$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +9.8wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…9162backed Athletics | 65c | 164.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked Athletics | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Athletics | 55c | 152$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816b…9ec7backed Athletics | 75c | 133.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Athletics | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 107.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…eebcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 105.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 105.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Los Angeles Angels | 40c | 104.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…f20dbacked Athletics | 66c | 87.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…d6b7backed Athletics | 58c | 85.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 78.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 70.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 66.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 34c | 65.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 52.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…25ffbacked Athletics | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…bd31backed Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 40.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 36.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 35.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Athletics | 64c | 32.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 30.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…722ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 43c | 27.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7460backed Athletics | 75c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.