MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5360fd981106aa5620deab090e29fa3732ba0d63b50c4b74a368c2282f86c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 3,736$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 47c | 2,730$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.57 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 47c | 2,047$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.66 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 957.33$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 37c | 647.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 63c | 597.99$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.74 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 16c | 467.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 36c | 328.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.56 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 38c | 306$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…3ed2backed Under | 51c | 296.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 65c | 294$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Over | 50c | 244$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 56c | 224.79$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 47c | 202$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 71c | 164.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 142.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Under | 56c | 132.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 65c | 130.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 127.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 48c | 124.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 46c | 98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 66c | 83.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 43c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 74c | 74.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 29c | 70.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 73c | 69.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 67c | 65.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 65c | 56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Over | 40c | 44.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Under | 47c | 42.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 52c | 41.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 40.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 33c | 38.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 44c | 30.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Under | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed Under | 69c | 25.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Over | 75c | 23.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 56c | 23.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 68c | 22.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aef…4bc4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 80c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.