NFL · resolved market
Spread: CHI (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44dad6ad94829f4e6707ea26e4cf2c9431e123e94e6bbd972822218346656d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CINof CHI, CIN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd619…c461backed CIN | 49c | 4,800$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked CHI | 51c | 3,704$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.89 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed CHI | 52c | 1,107$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.64 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked CIN | 47c | 1,053$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.25 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CIN | 51c | 658.39$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.25 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed CHI | 53c | 647.26$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.05 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed CHI | 46c | 486.7$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked CHI | 42c | 472.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.78 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked CHI | 53c | 191$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked CIN | 47c | 104.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed CIN | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed CHI | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked CIN | 58c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…1063backed CHI | 47c | 74.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked CHI | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked CIN | 56c | 54.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed CIN | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked CIN | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed CHI | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked CHI | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed CIN | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked CIN | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked CHI | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed CIN | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked CIN | 54c | 28.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed CIN | 55c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked CIN | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CHI (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bears (-0.5)Bengals won
- 1H Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bengals won
- Bears vs. BengalsBengals won
- CHI vs. CIN: O/U 36.5Under won
- CHI vs. CIN: O/U 37.5Under won
- CHI vs. CIN: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: CHI (-1.5)CIN won
- Spread: CIN (-1.5)CIN won
- Spread: CIN (-2.5)CIN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.