NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Bengals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9df2fa1de09a39e05cd1f40acc99fc369c260bbbc8de5ab1859268bad4bb3a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bears, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Bengals | 39c | 24,021$9,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,663.04 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Bears | 60c | 18,850$11,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,284.87 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…0eaebacked Bears | 56c | 12,500$7,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,025 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…2e9fbacked Bengals | 44c | 10,169$4,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,694.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bengals | 40c | 9,290$3,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,550.35 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Bears | 15c | 8,113$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.83 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Bears | 50c | 5,783$2,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.02 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…ad70backed Bears | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Bears | 44c | 4,985$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.04 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Bengals | 40c | 4,800$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…1a00backed Bears | 64c | 3,252$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Bengals | 44c | 3,000$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Bengals | 48c | 2,809$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.77 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bears | 8c | 2,628$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.22 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Bears | 8c | 2,447$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.76 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Bears | 60c | 2,405$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Bears | 8c | 2,218$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bears | 60c | 1,995$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.33 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Bears | 60c | 1,918$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.11 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…9f80backed Bears | 55c | 1,894$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bears | 58c | 1,542$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Bengals | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Bengals | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0825backed Bears | 18c | 1,389$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Bears | 61c | 1,373$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.89 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Bengals | 56c | 1,352$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.86 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…4312backed Bears | 7c | 1,341$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bengals | 67c | 1,262$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.91 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bears | 60c | 1,177$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.05 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d0…a6fcbacked Bears | 59c | 1,176$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Bengals | 46c | 1,170$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.51 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…ec19backed Bengals | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bears | 19c | 1,013$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.06 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Bears | 53c | 862.42$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.83 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Bengals | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Bengals | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Bengals | 62c | 664.23$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.32 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Bengals | 73c | 661.71$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.14 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Bears | 53c | 579.81$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.13 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Bengals | 47c | 550.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Bengals | 46c | 510.53$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.69 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Bears | 58c | 501.05$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Bears | 53c | 424.31$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.31 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Bengals | 45c | 417.48$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.93 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Bengals | 45c | 356.28$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Bears | 59c | 341$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.96 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bengals | 46c | 318.51$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Bengals | 64c | 290.2$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Bears | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Bengals | 37c | 257.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…9e05backed Bears | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Bengals | 41c | 244.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d1…6e26backed Bengals | 44c | 240$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Bears | 56c | 234.8$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bears | 51c | 218.4$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Bears | 31c | 210.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Bengals | 62c | 204.03$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…06d8backed Bengals | 37c | 189.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Bengals | 59c | 164.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bears | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…9f18backed Bengals | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +96%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Bengals | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Bengals | 45c | 148.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…a0fdbacked Bengals | 37c | 145$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c67…a0e0backed Bengals | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Bears | 53c | 134$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Bengals | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked Bears | 64c | 125.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59aa…3376backed Bengals | 59c | 121.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Bears | 68c | 117.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Bears | 39c | 116.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bengals | 46c | 107.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Bears | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Bears | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Bengals | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Bengals | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Bears | 66c | 98.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Bears | 60c | 94.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Bengals | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…5da6backed Bears | 68c | 73.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Bengals | 72c | 69.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Bears | 59c | 67.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Bears | 53c | 66.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Bengals | 45c | 61.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…2257backed Bears | 54c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Bears | 58c | 60.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Bears | 60c | 57.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Bengals | 45c | 53.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Bears | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Bengals | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Bengals | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bears | 52c | 46.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Bengals | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…b4e1backed Bears | 56c | 44.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bengals | 46c | 41.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Bears | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c9…1ef1backed Bears | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bears | 50c | 37.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Bears | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173b…1effbacked Bengals | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Bengalsthis page
- 1H Spread: Bears (-0.5)Bengals won
- 1H Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bengals won
- CHI vs. CIN: O/U 36.5Under won
- CHI vs. CIN: O/U 37.5Under won
- CHI vs. CIN: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: CHI (-1.5)CIN won
- Spread: CHI (-2.5)CIN won
- Spread: CIN (-1.5)CIN won
- Spread: CIN (-2.5)CIN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.