Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4567028397a0eb1837403ef3debbf13b86c3ef4733a459b2a3542eba869ded72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,010$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.37 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 750.5$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.47 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 344.23$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 56c | 274.07$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 75c | 268.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 44c | 251.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.93 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 63c | 226.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 183.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 36c | 164.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 148.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 145$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 143.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 142.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 60c | 119$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 117.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 36c | 104.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 44c | 100.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 62c | 99.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 92.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 54c | 89.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 21c | 83.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 82.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 78.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked No | 65c | 78.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 73.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 61c | 70.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 30c | 68.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 63.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 57.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 57.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 56.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 55.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 52.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 52.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 74c | 47.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 45c | 47.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 64c | 47.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 44.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 41.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 28c | 40.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Yes | 39c | 38.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 38.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 37.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 70c | 36.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 35.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 48c | 34.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 26.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked Yes | 45c | 25.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 22.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…90acbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.