NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45871a46d44832b2df49836b8587f86e72b3ded4713b6edfe6266f0ec838c034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 8,267$4,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,838.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 4,072$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.01 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…b83abacked Over | 46c | 2,236$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8f…3c2cbacked Under | 54c | 2,236$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 42c | 1,643$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over | 46c | 1,469$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.55 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 1,228$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.8 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 46c | 639.13$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 57c | 548$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.64 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 57c | 533.52$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.75 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 54c | 484.13$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.7 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Under | 62c | 454.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.35 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 352$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 284.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 270$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 42c | 186.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 58c | 177.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…96febacked Over | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Under | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 87.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 57c | 86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…f268backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…308cbacked Under | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 38c | 35.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 45c | 34.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 48c | 33.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…4954backed Under | 55c | 32.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2440…4f7ebacked Over | 47c | 32.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…9654backed Under | 58c | 31.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…4605backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5this page
- Hornets vs. NuggetsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.