NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd8c4348b1578349f4e9f3dd1b39b8f0fa5db2c4b73adef4468996d955e1dd04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Under | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…61b7backed Over | 49c | 3,673$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 2,964$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…dd5fbacked Under | 51c | 2,549$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb823…86f7backed Under | 51c | 2,539$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…f8e6backed Over | 49c | 2,454$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 2,083$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 1,252$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 51c | 1,059$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.82 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…0145backed Under | 51c | 1,039$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 51c | 1,012$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.72 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 1,012$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.72 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 894$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Over | 49c | 846.94$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 337.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 54c | 256.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 185.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 50c | 153$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 46c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 51c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…96febacked Over | 45c | 76.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Under | 55c | 76.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked Under | 54c | 74.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…c46dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…6170backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Over | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Over | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 55c | 20.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5this page
- Hornets vs. NuggetsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.