NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a510c1fee2616e0e6638d336bfec8c3a1c07766d209b9f5b14f0374e92d31ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Nuggets, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 66c | 5,139$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 35c | 4,433$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.81 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Nuggets | 37c | 2,670$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.42 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets | 37c | 2,500$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.94 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 55c | 2,173$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Nuggets | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb915…8da5backed Hornets | 50c | 1,950$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 46c | 1,688$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.43 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 67c | 839.66$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.09 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Hornets | 59c | 592.61$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.61 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 63c | 562.93$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Nuggets | 39c | 497.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Hornets | 60c | 442.87$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.15 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Hornets | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Nuggets | 42c | 380.95$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Hornets | 63c | 323.81$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Hornets | 64c | 315$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Nuggets | 36c | 309.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Hornets | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Nuggets | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…a806backed Nuggets | 40c | 280$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 160 | 30.6%49 W · 111 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 62c | 213.67$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hornets | 60c | 208.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Nuggets | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Hornets | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Hornets | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hornets | 62c | 126.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nuggets | 37c | 112.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Nuggets | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Nuggets | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nuggets | 38c | 98.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Hornets | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Nuggets | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 362 | 47.5%172 W · 190 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…0cf5backed Nuggets | 38c | 79.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…be15backed Hornets | 77c | 67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Hornets | 63c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Nuggets | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Nuggets | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…d581backed Nuggets | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hornets | 73c | 43.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Hornets | 62c | 40.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Nuggets | 37c | 35.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Nuggets | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Hornets | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…1008backed Nuggets | 40c | 26.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Hornets | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Hornets | 61c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Hornets | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Hornets | 63c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)this page
- Hornets vs. NuggetsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.