NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ebc7b96723a12c66951ddb160d9a109f82c5c197fac58f18f7e4bfaa97c6777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Nuggets, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hornets | 55c | 15,051$8,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,773.11 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 40c | 13,178$5,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,275.55 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Nuggets | 41c | 11,941$4,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,895.74 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…ed6bbacked Nuggets | 45c | 10,699$4,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,814.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hornets | 54c | 9,494$5,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,367.25 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 56c | 8,128$4,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 65c | 7,838$5,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Nuggets | 46c | 7,041$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,239 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Hornets | 54c | 2,325$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.38 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Nuggets | 46c | 2,152$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.92 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Nuggets | 45c | 2,105$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.25 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 60c | 1,946$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,804$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 59c | 1,800$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 53c | 1,417$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.42 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 59c | 1,075$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.79 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 56c | 1,037$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.91 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,022$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.56 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Hornets | 53c | 957.05$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.81 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Hornets | 59c | 668.76$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.88 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Nuggets | 36c | 624$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.84 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Nuggets | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Hornets | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 345.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nuggets | 42c | 261.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Nuggets | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Nuggets | 47c | 184$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Hornets | 59c | 171.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Hornets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Hornets | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Nuggets | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Nuggets | 46c | 111.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Nuggets | 45c | 107.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…1b68backed Hornets | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…790abacked Nuggets | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Nuggets | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 58c | 91.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Hornets | 56c | 73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Hornets | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Hornets | 59c | 67.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Hornets | 60c | 51.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…0c93backed Hornets | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…84b9backed Hornets | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Hornets | 59c | 45.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…e7acbacked Nuggets | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcb…0047backed Nuggets | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Hornets | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Hornets | 62c | 40.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hornets | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…d581backed Nuggets | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Nuggets | 38c | 38.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Hornets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Nuggets | 41c | 36.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Hornets | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Nuggets | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Nuggets | 46c | 32.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…07e4backed Nuggets | 45c | 32.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Hornets | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nuggets | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Nuggets | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Nuggets | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Nuggets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hornets | 55c | 18.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Hornets | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)this page
- Hornets vs. NuggetsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.