NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58e7e0c983dd519d5fff5b51f4594ce7bedd2bf0b84ecb8b86f5f3eadae60918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Nuggets, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 8,617$4,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,016.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Hornets | 53c | 8,051$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.18 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Nuggets | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hornets | 50c | 5,915$2,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,957.64 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Nuggets | 42c | 5,322$2,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.42 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Nuggets | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Hornets | 50c | 2,761$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.34 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Hornets | 55c | 2,474$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.3 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Hornets | 53c | 2,224$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.39 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Hornets | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 56c | 1,745$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 63c | 946$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.38 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Hornets | 52c | 930.38$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.58 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Nuggets | 41c | 516$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.56 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Nuggets | 50c | 439.76$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.88 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 53c | 344.35$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Nuggets | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Hornets | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nuggets | 44c | 227.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x833e…f756backed Nuggets | 43c | 227.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Hornets | 52c | 151$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Nuggets | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Hornets | 52c | 112$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…7061backed Hornets | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Nuggets | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Hornets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nuggets | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Hornets | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Nuggets | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 362 | 47.5%172 W · 190 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 43c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…6fc0backed Nuggets | 43c | 51.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Nuggets | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Hornets | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Nuggets | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Nuggets | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Nuggets | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Nuggets | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Nuggets | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Nuggets | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 52c | 22.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Nuggets | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)this page
- Hornets vs. NuggetsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.