TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Dallas Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Ben Shelton

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sheltonof Shapovalov, Shelton
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$687,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$731,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $687,899 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Shapovalov55c90,633$49,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,421.732,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Shelton67c63,289$42,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,646.831154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Shapovalov51c48,558$24,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,820.9381349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shapovalov48c46,084$22,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,312.5511,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shelton49c40,662$20,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,660.556,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Shelton42c34,091$14,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,914.4865647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Shapovalov33c30,333$10,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,093.357146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Shelton35c29,418$10,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,101.2513754.7%75 W · 62 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Shelton64c20,000$12,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.996552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Shapovalov54c14,723$7,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,88911242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Shapovalov55c14,350$7,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,843.983834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Shapovalov34c13,192$4,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,428.3815832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Shelton53c12,415$6,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,806.331,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Shelton41c12,060$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,060.48977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+84%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Shapovalov36c12,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3206541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Shapovalov34c11,764$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,970.9728338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Shapovalov36c11,158$3,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,964.21,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Shelton45c10,660$4,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,823.4897046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Shapovalov33c10,500$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4654744.7%21 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Shelton46c10,215$4,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,497.461,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Shelton62c9,653$5,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,668.376140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Shelton52c9,633$5,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,589.1555646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Shelton50c9,553$4,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,805.043,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Shelton42c7,595$3,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,398.1799044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Shapovalov43c7,531$3,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,269.312,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Shelton35c7,500$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,874.9912442.7%53 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Shapovalov43c7,125$3,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,061.763141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Shapovalov38c7,000$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6609545.3%43 W · 52 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Shelton64c6,145$3,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.834,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Shelton66c5,500$3,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.9815665.4%102 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Shelton37c5,412$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,411.827460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Shapovalov38c5,293$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.33461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Shelton59c5,206$3,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.728158%47 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eeb…fe8fbacked Shelton67c5,039$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,662.871353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Shapovalov43c4,732$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.592,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Shelton66c4,545$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.4536968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Shapovalov38c4,287$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.874949%24 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Shapovalov46c4,009$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.48,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Shapovalov54c4,000$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.1613852.9%73 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Shelton65c3,844$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.2316743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Shelton64c3,408$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.738262.2%51 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Shelton61c3,239$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.295658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa83b…def4backed Shelton63c3,225$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.1875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Shelton63c3,172$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.074673.9%34 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4376…c247backed Shapovalov36c3,110$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Shelton66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.344163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Shelton63c3,000$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.8344360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Shapovalov37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11012147.1%57 W · 64 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Shelton36c2,804$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.2748851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Shapovalov38c2,642$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.9498240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Shapovalov38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00038955.3%215 W · 174 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Shapovalov36c2,457$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.576146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Shapovalov36c2,415$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.55623.2%13 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Shapovalov34c2,412$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8201,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Shelton34c2,353$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.9410440.4%42 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x241a…a9c8backed Shapovalov45c2,310$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.37248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shelton44c2,288$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.321,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Shapovalov36c2,253$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.0814450.7%73 W · 71 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Shapovalov37c2,162$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.9937339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Shapovalov65c2,154$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.2416242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3c…2f57backed Shapovalov36c2,093$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.3930740.7%125 W · 182 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Shelton59c2,038$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.3120653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Shapovalov36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7209452.1%49 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Shapovalov48c1,914$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.3626535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Shelton50c1,900$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.879567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Shapovalov39c1,858$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7203265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Shapovalov52c1,853$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3647057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea3…b910backed Shelton46c1,815$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.894658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Shelton64c1,682$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.346350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Shelton54c1,645$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.7912952.7%68 W · 61 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Shapovalov37c1,617$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.426545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Shapovalov64c1,603$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0271,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Shelton65c1,601$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.669264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Shelton64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.515862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce6…2e69backed Shelton65c1,539$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.013554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Shapovalov36c1,458$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.887,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Shelton36c1,389$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.896934.8%24 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Shelton62c1,375$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.4218663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Shelton23c1,350$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.652556%14 W · 11 L+5.5wins+0.22per pick34cpaid+86.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Shelton63c1,315$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.6328444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Shelton65c1,300$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45746553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Shelton61c1,246$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.0910954.1%59 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Shapovalov55c1,144$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.4630645.1%138 W · 168 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Shapovalov37c1,073$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012627.8%35 W · 91 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed Shelton61c1,056$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.611963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Shapovalov36c1,031$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.1631332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc537…f385backed Shapovalov1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8348…de9fbacked Shapovalov2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x083e…fbd0backed Shelton36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6402100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+109.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Shelton38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Shelton62c999.54$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.6333556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf20…1481backed Shapovalov42c997.05$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Shelton62c895.34$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.943745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Shelton38c895.27$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.7910743%46 W · 61 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Shelton38c877.98$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.981,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Shelton44c855.02$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.121,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e0…0cf1backed Shapovalov65c846.15$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Shapovalov36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026853.7%144 W · 124 L+18.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x306c…70bbbacked Shelton43c817.26$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Shapovalov54c801.49$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.028143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.