NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4616e6fcc3f9b9ce02357317b11a2724cf36cd9e1d91b39f0ad81aeb4aa44045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 67c | 828.31$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.08 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over | 67c | 599.97$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 569.09$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 39c | 547.01$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.65 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 33c | 512.11$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 51c | 494.38$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.77 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…2851backed Over | 49c | 452.1$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 67c | 392$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 61c | 371.62$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.62 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 35c | 344.23$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 337.63$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 78c | 202.59$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 51c | 149$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 40c | 114.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 99.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 35c | 85.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 37c | 82.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Over | 62c | 80.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 68c | 68.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 43c | 67.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e0…ffe9backed Under | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 34c | 46.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 67c | 41.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 55c | 39.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 36c | 37.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Under | 33c | 34.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 33c | 34.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 45c | 28.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 67c | 27.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 68c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Under | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Over | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…718fbacked Over | 64c | 18.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…2e23backed Over | 64c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10d…3590backed Over | 64c | 15.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Jazz vs. HawksHawks won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.