NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb511be13cd26bca0235baa60181ce54a764431b6f3ce093e90e4dc7df7a38d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bd7…373ebacked Over | 58c | 10,531$6,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,107.98 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 44c | 9,689$4,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,449.62 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 2,062$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 1,937$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.53 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 1,135$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.32 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 44c | 1,063$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.91 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 982.85$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 55c | 681.82$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 420.65$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 246$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 42c | 238.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 175.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Under | 44c | 118$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 42c | 115.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Over | 68c | 109$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 33.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…a366backed Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 69c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5this page
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Jazz vs. HawksHawks won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.