TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,348 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Over46c12,812$5,895 inLost-$5,894.954,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under54c7,289$3,936 inWon+$3,352.7552052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under54c4,928$2,662 inWon+$2,266.1256646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over46c3,828$1,746 inLost-$1,7463,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under54c2,411$1,302 inWon+$1,109.162,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under55c1,818$1,000 inWon+$818.181,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over51c1,331$677 inLost-$677.372,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c1,099$538 inWon+$560.459,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Over50c251.96$125 inLost-$124.9620744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c174$85 inWon+$88.742,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Under35c131.23$46 inWon+$85.237247.2%34 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc919…c413backed Under51c112.25$57 inWon+$55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Under51c101.96$52 inWon+$49.9632151.7%166 W · 155 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over51c100$51 inLost-$5149351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b71…0e06backed Under54c84$45 inWon+$38.643756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over45c83$37 inLost-$37.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under50c78$39 inWon+$391,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under52c76.31$40 inWon+$36.631,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.