NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4822e4531fba17479fb36f3bf6035778486a6e94ae87583b04acda1029c12f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Vikings, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Giants | 59c | 12,391$7,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,080.34 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Vikings | 41c | 11,940$4,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,895.44 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Vikings | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Giants | 57c | 7,500$4,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,225 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 57c | 4,698$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.35 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Vikings | 43c | 1,854$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.41 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Giants | 59c | 1,700$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.1 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Vikings | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Vikings | 43c | 999.97$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.99 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Giants | 59c | 989$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.49 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Giants | 59c | 711$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.51 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Vikings | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Vikings | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Vikings | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Vikings | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Vikings | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Giants | 59c | 183.61$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Giants | 58c | 155.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Giants | 58c | 138$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Vikings | 40c | 121$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Vikings | 43c | 116.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Giants | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Vikings | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Giants | 57c | 89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Giants | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Giants | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Giants | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Giants | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Giants | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Giants | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +16.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Vikings | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Vikings | 42c | 33.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Giants | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Vikings | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72e…b33dbacked Vikings | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Vikings | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Vikings | 45c | 22.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Vikings (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Vikings won
- Vikings vs. GiantsVikings won
- Vikings vs. Giants: 1H MoneylineVikings won
- Vikings vs. Giants: O/U 41.5Under won
- Vikings vs. Giants: O/U 42.5Under won
- Vikings vs. Giants: O/U 43.5Under won
- Vikings vs. Giants: O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.