MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4873c7eddf9f5c73d995ca11d043451301ad9305e2575d72a295e56fd6ac21b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 2,121$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.8 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 2,062$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.91 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 1,952$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.28 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 1,950$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.78 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 1,859$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.04 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 1,710$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.95 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 1,038$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.03 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 935.58$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.49 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked San Diego Padres | 25c | 780$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 511.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.23 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 504.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 500$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.57 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 334.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.59 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 324$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 301.23$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 275$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 31c | 272.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.14 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 261.88$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 182 | 57.7%105 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 241.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 213.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 154$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 152.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 142$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 141.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 141$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 129.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 29c | 118$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 98.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…d536backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 84.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 68.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 68.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 64.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 59.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 57.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 53.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 49.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 44.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 231 | 42.9%99 W · 132 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 43.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 38.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 26.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 21.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…cf5fbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…e4d0backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.