MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb87d88ca2a40b9c741fde47487e00cdd2e7fa69d6137867f51f8bd1d6e00f8f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 70,013$30,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,468.01 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 19,182$10,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,439.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 18,499$10,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,769.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 13,280$7,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,843.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 11,364$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 9,725$5,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,272.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 7,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 4,517$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 3,127$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.64 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 2,290$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,623$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.21 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,600$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,355$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 1,305$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.12 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 1,211$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.78 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 1,125$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 975$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 712.63$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.17 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 643.13$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.82 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 532.44$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.27 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 482$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.13 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 405.9$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.22 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 304.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 296.04$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 267.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 250$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 183.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 180$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 144$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 120.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…ae12backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 114.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 107.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 106.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 102.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 92.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 83.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 80.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 80.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 78.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 73.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 70.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 70.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 53.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…dbcdbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 52.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed San Francisco Giants | 77c | 31.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 28.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 18.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 18.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.