TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nets (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pacersof Nets, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,413 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers44c1,324$586 inWon+$738.276,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets54c1,241$670 inLost-$669.969,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Pacers40c829.38$328 inWon+$500.921,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets57c571.2$327 inLost-$326.654,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Nets58c546.89$317 inLost-$317.21,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Nets62c324.37$200 inLost-$2001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pacers38c213.26$81 inWon+$132.223,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6fa0…d504backed Pacers46c172$79 inWon+$92.888350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Nets60c149.46$90 inLost-$89.6828842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53aa…07fcbacked Nets56c100$56 inLost-$569051.1%46 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Pacers27c94$25 inWon+$68.623,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets54c87.72$47 inLost-$47.384,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Nets61c85$52 inLost-$51.8533360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Nets60c83.33$50 inLost-$5061056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Pacers38c60$23 inWon+$37.156653%35 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers40c57.53$23 inWon+$34.523,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets64c50.23$32 inLost-$32.148,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Nets60c50$30 inLost-$3031947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nets59c49.18$29 inLost-$29.0264651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Pacers41c42.68$17 inWon+$25.1823845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Nets60c38.97$24 inLost-$23.5257657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Nets54c36.8$20 inLost-$19.8715649.4%77 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Pacers44c32.84$14 inWon+$18.392,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Nets61c26.89$16 inLost-$16.450841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nets60c22.47$13 inLost-$13.481,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.