NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nets (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40d11da862d1b460229466a06fa4f1ca9eb1f336396affa1034d8ceb922c8234

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pacersof Nets, Pacers
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $84,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,104 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	53c	11,470$6,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,109.04	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Pacers	50c	10,000$4,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,050	354	50.8%180 W · 174 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Nets	52c	6,187$3,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets	52c	4,474$2,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,325.71	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Pacers	44c	4,074$1,777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,297.06	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pacers	48c	3,967$1,904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,062.71	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Pacers	49c	3,668$1,797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,870.7	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Nets	50c	3,200$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600	389	46%179 W · 210 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Pacers	49c	3,064$1,509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,555.58	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Nets	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	187	47.1%88 W · 99 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers	42c	2,715$1,151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,564.15	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Pacers	43c	2,708$1,164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,543.35	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Pacers	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,300	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Nets	52c	2,334$1,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,214	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nets	51c	2,098$1,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,075.12	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Nets	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,019.99	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50e0…7132backed Pacers	8c	1,700$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,570	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+2.1wins	+0.21per pick	9cpaid	+425.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Nets	54c	1,623$874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$874.4	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Pacers	41c	1,500$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$880	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd533…7b07backed Pacers	7c	1,300$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,203	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+2.1wins	+0.21per pick	9cpaid	+362.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Nets	51c	1,292$659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.92	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets	52c	1,199$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.05	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Pacers	49c	1,122$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.45	560	43.9%246 W · 314 L	-31.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pacers	42c	1,036$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$604.05	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Pacers	49c	1,020$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.41	172	41.9%72 W · 100 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pacers	50c	1,000$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$503.76	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Pacers	15c	995$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$845.75	155	34.2%53 W · 102 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Pacers	6c	900$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$846	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+4.4wins	+0.17per pick	6cpaid	+428%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Pacers	51c	899.99$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.23	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Pacers	51c	897.96$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.23	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers	46c	896.74$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.24	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets	73c	845.59$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.27	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff25…960cbacked Pacers	6c	819.63$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$766.65	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+3.5wins	+0.24per pick	10cpaid	+421.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Pacers	24c	817.75$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620.93	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde5d…e2d7backed Pacers	50c	733.44$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$366.65	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nets	56c	729.89$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.74	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Nets	52c	671.09$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.97	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Nets	58c	578.56$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Nets	53c	548.37$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.77	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pacers	50c	480.51$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.26	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Pacers	48c	438.92$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.24	179	53.1%95 W · 84 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Nets	57c	438.6$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Pacers	49c	408.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.16	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb7f…c092backed Pacers	8c	400$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+4.6wins	+0.35per pick	11cpaid	+378%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pacers	42c	300$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Nets	53c	253.4$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.26	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e95…4183backed Pacers	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Nets	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Pacers	26c	156.06$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.72	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee57…b2b6backed Nets	51c	150$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.31	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-6.3wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pacers	48c	146$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.92	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Nets	55c	126.59$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.62	806	53.6%432 W · 374 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pacers	44c	120.32$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.92	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Nets	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Pacers	44c	111$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.16	239	46.4%111 W · 128 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Nets	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	400	53.5%214 W · 186 L	+14.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c61…4fa6backed Pacers	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Nets	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Pacers	34c	91.67$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.2	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a1…d943backed Pacers	55c	90.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.63	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed Pacers	43c	80.63$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.63	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb39…a1f6backed Pacers	50c	79.22$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.22	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nets	67c	77.19$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.55	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Nets	76c	76.22$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.84	238	45.4%108 W · 130 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Nets	65c	74.48$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.37	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Pacers	48c	61.18$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.95	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae39…c212backed Pacers	50c	60.04$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.88	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.4wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+94.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Pacers	50c	60.04$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.88	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Nets	69c	60$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	1,384	39.4%545 W · 839 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Pacers	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	293	51.9%152 W · 141 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nets	55c	57.03$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Pacers	49c	55.1$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.1	213	52.1%111 W · 102 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Nets	53c	50.74$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Nets	57c	45.03$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.67	508	41.7%212 W · 296 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Pacers	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	215	53.5%115 W · 100 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…fdcdbacked Pacers	50c	39.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.73	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pacers	36c	39.26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.24	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Pacers	49c	36.54$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.79	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Nets	56c	35.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	201	49.8%100 W · 101 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Pacers	49c	32.65$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.65	242	50.8%123 W · 119 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Pacers	49c	31.92$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	190	51.6%98 W · 92 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bdf…b929backed Pacers	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Nets	51c	29.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	336	53.9%181 W · 155 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Nets	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…9815backed Nets	76c	18.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Nets (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event