TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michigan State Spartansof Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,424 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Michigan State Spartans74c4,353$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.612,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Michigan State Spartans61c4,112$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.282864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana Hoosiers26c2,942$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.344,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Michigan State Spartans75c2,787$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.675450%27 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Indiana Hoosiers27c2,222$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9439744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Michigan State Spartans75c1,782$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.8713342.1%56 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Indiana Hoosiers25c1,603$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.216940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Indiana Hoosiers27c1,542$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.131,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Michigan State Spartans70c1,386$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.251,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Michigan State Spartans73c1,340$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.023,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Indiana Hoosiers26c1,329$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.542,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Indiana Hoosiers25c1,200$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.081,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Michigan State Spartans73c1,053$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.3149043.1%211 W · 279 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Indiana Hoosiers25c1,044$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.021,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans73c1,032$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.215,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Indiana Hoosiers37c1,019$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.645,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9161…622ebacked Indiana Hoosiers7c998.74$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.494522.2%10 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+51.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c72…78edbacked Indiana Hoosiers21c942.86$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1983336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Michigan State Spartans78c770$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1705942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Indiana Hoosiers34c752.09$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f1…0f6bbacked Indiana Hoosiers34c751.09$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.631353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Indiana Hoosiers23c712.39$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.382,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Indiana Hoosiers27c672.89$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.691,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfead…fa47backed Michigan State Spartans75c670.16$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+167%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa114…55b7backed Indiana Hoosiers27c525.43$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.42955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Indiana Hoosiers25c473.57$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Indiana Hoosiers24c462.93$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4494036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2d…40b1backed Indiana Hoosiers26c455.29$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.453821.1%8 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Michigan State Spartans75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Indiana Hoosiers23c292.07$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7345644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Indiana Hoosiers22c283.68$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7132343%139 W · 184 L-18.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Michigan State Spartans61c279.81$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8136535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Indiana Hoosiers44c277$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4772248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Michigan State Spartans79c258.66$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.325534.5%19 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Indiana Hoosiers32c246.28$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.151,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe681…6e1ebacked Indiana Hoosiers35c244.61$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Indiana Hoosiers20c237.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.556457.8%37 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Michigan State Spartans71c208.76$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.151,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Indiana Hoosiers33c206.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2257335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecc2…eeefbacked Michigan State Spartans75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507272.2%52 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7e…f17dbacked Indiana Hoosiers10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204316.3%7 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f29…9d73backed Indiana Hoosiers27c199.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Indiana Hoosiers26c197.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.872,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Indiana Hoosiers38c191.85$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.849849%48 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan State Spartans72c191.71$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.682,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b5…69f8backed Michigan State Spartans75c158.47$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacc…4511backed Michigan State Spartans70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de5…e8f5backed Michigan State Spartans75c148.69$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.348362.7%52 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6a44backed Michigan State Spartans68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x699d…7b47backed Indiana Hoosiers14c143.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62020%4 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+74.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State Spartans73c140$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.857448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Indiana Hoosiers28c129.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.093,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d75…bd1fbacked Indiana Hoosiers37c115.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…d3abbacked Indiana Hoosiers33c115.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1720234.2%69 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Indiana Hoosiers25c107.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5348051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Indiana Hoosiers24c101.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8566831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Indiana Hoosiers25c95.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.862,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Indiana Hoosiers29c87.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0218241.2%75 W · 107 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Michigan State Spartans59c84.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.836931.9%22 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Indiana Hoosiers30c84.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2936942.3%156 W · 213 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f12…8685backed Indiana Hoosiers28c81.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.78911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.42per pick53cpaid-81.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5df1…2da7backed Indiana Hoosiers15c68.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.358930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a0…1baebacked Indiana Hoosiers26c64.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Indiana Hoosiers27c63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0141554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Indiana Hoosiers42c60.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520024%48 W · 152 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Indiana Hoosiers26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.537835.7%135 W · 243 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f7…c7fabacked Indiana Hoosiers39c53.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.95046%23 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Michigan State Spartans73c52.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0973549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Indiana Hoosiers26c51.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3689146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8b…4f21backed Indiana Hoosiers28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Indiana Hoosiers25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.522552.9%119 W · 106 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa2a…f4f7backed Michigan State Spartans72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb9…84babacked Michigan State Spartans75c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.481872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c93…eb47backed Michigan State Spartans80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x434d…bed3backed Michigan State Spartans75c17.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4f…c578backed Michigan State Spartans72c14.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.041060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1dc…1068backed Michigan State Spartans75c14.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.49771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.