TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Billy Harris

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karen Khachanovof Karen Khachanov, Billy Harris
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$344,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Billy Harris13c56,923$7,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,127.948,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Billy Harris1c31,298$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012843%55 W · 73 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e86…6dfbbacked Billy Harris5c17,306$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.7920444.6%91 W · 113 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024d…b912backed Karen Khachanov68c10,294$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,294.195151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Billy Harris19c3,467$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.563,54142.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L-44.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Billy Harris27c3,350$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.346,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Billy Harris7c3,195$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.048,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Billy Harris28c3,067$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.174,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Karen Khachanov79c3,065$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.5693168.1%634 W · 297 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Billy Harris24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9968935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7750…a3f3backed Billy Harris19c2,368$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45011215.2%17 W · 95 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Karen Khachanov76c2,059$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.232,23852.1%1,165 W · 1,073 L+80.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Karen Khachanov72c1,567$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.953,18748.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L-46.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Billy Harris28c1,505$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.456,41154.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L+283.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Karen Khachanov73c1,320$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.344,46667.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L+299.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Billy Harris25c1,280$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.995,19928.8%1,496 W · 3,703 L-18.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Karen Khachanov71c1,250$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.574343.7%325 W · 418 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Billy Harris27c1,038$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.181,35438.3%518 W · 836 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Karen Khachanov72c999.99$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801,09052.6%573 W · 517 L-4.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Karen Khachanov68c929.76$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.313,62145.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L-3.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d3…cb4fbacked Billy Harris6c916.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Billy Harris13c911.07$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.121,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked Billy Harris28c788.56$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5519645.9%90 W · 106 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Billy Harris28c738.67$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.11,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Karen Khachanov74c694$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4459852.7%315 W · 283 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74b…4e15backed Billy Harris27c555.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505928.8%17 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8087backed Billy Harris28c549.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1545930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Billy Harris25c520$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13043353.6%232 W · 201 L+32.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Billy Harris21c489.97$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1336435.2%128 W · 236 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Billy Harris28c455$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.572755.6%404 W · 323 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Billy Harris34c441.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15038033.9%129 W · 251 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Billy Harris25c410.64$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.291,14147.2%539 W · 602 L+65.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Karen Khachanov75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10013050.8%66 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354b…4744backed Billy Harris26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009053.3%48 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Billy Harris28c339.29$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9521524.7%53 W · 162 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Billy Harris6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017829.2%52 W · 126 L+0.7wins0.00per pick29cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Karen Khachanov73c328.61$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.723348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Billy Harris27c316.54$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4742141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Billy Harris29c295.9$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8140350.6%204 W · 199 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Karen Khachanov75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6759065.4%386 W · 204 L-16.3wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Karen Khachanov71c261$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.795,37748.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L+16.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Karen Khachanov71c255.25$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.024,12644.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L+13.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Karen Khachanov69c245$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.652,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Billy Harris30c220.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1426953.5%144 W · 125 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Billy Harris21c212.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.642,07944.4%923 W · 1,156 L-52.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Billy Harris26c208.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.792,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Karen Khachanov73c205.42$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.462,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Karen Khachanov72c204.81$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.352,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Billy Harris10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2083823.2%194 W · 644 L-58.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Billy Harris28c195.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5575350.5%380 W · 373 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Billy Harris26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5034538%131 W · 214 L+1.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Billy Harris29c187.24$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.38354.2%45 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Billy Harris27c173.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.182,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Billy Harris17c169.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.244423.9%106 W · 338 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Billy Harris36c167.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1424856.9%141 W · 107 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc93d…23d5backed Billy Harris7c156.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2424748.6%120 W · 127 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff7…d9d4backed Billy Harris15c153.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2325020.8%52 W · 198 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Billy Harris32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.543250.5%218 W · 214 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Billy Harris21c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3234650.6%175 W · 171 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Billy Harris33c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4920850%104 W · 104 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffa…7710backed Billy Harris28c145.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.871428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Billy Harris30c142.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.881,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Karen Khachanov75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3365652.1%342 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3f…994fbacked Karen Khachanov75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.337766.2%51 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Billy Harris36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4590454.4%492 W · 412 L+3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Karen Khachanov72c121.33$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7711064.5%71 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Karen Khachanov74c119.14$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9823742.6%101 W · 136 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda87…ca76backed Billy Harris17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206232.3%20 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Billy Harris18c116.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.486,74048.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L+58.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c8…a25cbacked Billy Harris12c110$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516451.8%85 W · 79 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cc…d703backed Karen Khachanov73c109.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.591952.6%10 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ad…a700backed Billy Harris30c105$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.511955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Billy Harris28c103$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8427353.1%145 W · 128 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Billy Harris14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1466830.5%204 W · 464 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed Karen Khachanov72c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2835457.3%203 W · 151 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked Karen Khachanov75c99.25$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.819961.6%61 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Billy Harris28c95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.729551.5%152 W · 143 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a97…2ccbbacked Billy Harris16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Billy Harris26c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f89…20bbbacked Billy Harris12c86.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5110637.7%40 W · 66 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Karen Khachanov74c83.9$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.91,63848.2%789 W · 849 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…2b21backed Billy Harris30c79.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.754949%24 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Karen Khachanov72c78.36$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.321,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Billy Harris26c77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.022,44235.8%874 W · 1,568 L-29.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Billy Harris26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022235.1%78 W · 144 L+1.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Billy Harris26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014243%61 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28be…6dbebacked Billy Harris26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023536.6%86 W · 149 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Billy Harris28c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2165259.4%387 W · 265 L+31.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Karen Khachanov73c75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2595455.5%529 W · 425 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked Billy Harris31c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2549957.5%287 W · 212 L+29.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Billy Harris26c69.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3963537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…84f7backed Karen Khachanov68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.235349.9%176 W · 177 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Billy Harris24c54.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3531220.5%64 W · 248 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Billy Harris28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524349.4%120 W · 123 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x337a…b913backed Billy Harris20c52.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked Karen Khachanov76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6321964.8%142 W · 77 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Karen Khachanov74c51.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.261,69248.8%826 W · 866 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Billy Harris28c49.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9955149.7%274 W · 277 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb30…97e8backed Karen Khachanov73c48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.962548%12 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Billy Harris34c47.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2413255.3%73 W · 59 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.