Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4986c158be7b6c423b11a8054f7078d7a3fc5edc1a58f3ab3dcacf74c40af81d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 67c | 2,380$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.28 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 24c | 1,972$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.78 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 75c | 1,633$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.17 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 1,584$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.53 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 31c | 1,560$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.49 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 79c | 1,553$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.29 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 33c | 1,384$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.14 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 15c | 1,292$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 1,170$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.48 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 2c | 976.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 934.79$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.8 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 931.47$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.92 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 17c | 779.95$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.59 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 31c | 627$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.32 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 22c | 581.35$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 7c | 470$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…2a0ebacked No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 21c | 356$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 20c | 289.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 70c | 275$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 66c | 222.32$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 72c | 202$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 11c | 177.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf65f…134ebacked Yes | 16c | 174.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 22c | 157.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked No | 78c | 149.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 71c | 129.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed No | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 107.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 68c | 99.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Yes | 16c | 97.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 24c | 80.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 23c | 75.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…b109backed No | 78c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 70cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 78c | 48.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes | 30c | 45.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 40.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 78c | 39.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 79c | 28.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 66c | 28.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 78c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 69c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-07-22?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.