NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a0469fd4eb5980e51a92e19920acb755e359bc6326a8064f49a99e9ec115315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Over | 50c | 2,006$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.82 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 53c | 1,687$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.13 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,379$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 33c | 1,139$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.18 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…436fbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 55c | 903.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.74 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Over | 53c | 688.41$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.55 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 610.24$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.26 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e19…181cbacked Over | 50c | 498$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…d26cbacked Over | 50c | 454$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…238bbacked Over | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b0…c14ebacked Under | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…2ce1backed Under | 50c | 412$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…c913backed Under | 50c | 402$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 396.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…5948backed Under | 50c | 394$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…1954backed Under | 50c | 386$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…5c3cbacked Under | 50c | 382$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…5280backed Over | 50c | 372$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…8948backed Over | 50c | 332$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad9…1ad0backed Over | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 254.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 53c | 210$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 204.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 44c | 183.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 55c | 146.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 68c | 142.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Under | 47c | 135.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…d0e7backed Under | 54c | 130.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…8205backed Under | 20c | 99.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 33c | 93.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 75.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 54c | 74.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 74.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…d2d8backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Over | 19c | 52.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +6.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 54c | 50.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…5cb6backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…7af9backed Under | 46c | 39.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0488backed Under | 52c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 35.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 47c | 31.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Over | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ba…cf3fbacked Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Over | 55c | 25.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 25.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 46c | 23.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5this page
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.