TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,521
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,245

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,521 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c1,128$564 inWon+$564.393,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over48c923.53$444 inWon+$480.0119958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Under50c800$400 inLost-$40023047%108 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Under52c700$364 inLost-$36442348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over10c465.06$46 inWon+$419.161,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under50c192.74$96 inLost-$96.273,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Under52c192.31$100 inLost-$1005745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over33c164$54 inWon+$109.588,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf11b…3fe3backed Under49c100$49 inLost-$496056.7%34 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under68c60$41 inLost-$40.861253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Under50c52.64$27 inLost-$26.5650241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under51c40.78$21 inLost-$20.887744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Over49c40.78$20 inWon+$20.789226.1%24 W · 68 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Over35c34.6$12 inWon+$22.3639047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Under57c28.81$16 inLost-$16.4221259.9%127 W · 85 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Over43c23.81$10 inWon+$13.5733159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under50c20$10 inLost-$1064651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.