NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8079c80bba87c2efa514f1905d422cc8eeed19339bbd318e0fb31d51f35bd1d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 51c | 15,414$7,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,552.93 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 49c | 11,531$5,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,649.44 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 51c | 10,000$5,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900.85 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 9,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 7,270$3,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,569.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 25c | 1,364$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.87 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 1,152$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.22 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 53c | 1,060$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.8 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over | 51c | 1,046$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.46 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 54c | 900$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 47c | 872.85$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.61 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 855.38$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 9c | 722.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.38 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…b4adbacked Over | 50c | 628.53$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.06 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 50c | 588.14$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.07 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 46c | 492.29$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.84 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Under | 53c | 401.89$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Over | 51c | 392.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 52c | 347.54$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.82 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 335.37$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 51c | 306.38$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 41c | 271.64$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.54 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 249.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 49c | 202.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 50c | 200.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 53c | 188.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 48c | 186.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 160.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 53c | 112.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 69c | 106$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 48c | 103.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Under | 52c | 101.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Under | 70c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 295 | 47.5%140 W · 155 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 45c | 75.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 51c | 72.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…a410backed Under | 68c | 51.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3aa2backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 240 | 42.9%103 W · 137 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…6c27backed Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Under | 50c | 26.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…9e33backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 49c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 70c | 17.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5this page
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.