TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$453,500
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$447,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,500 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8dbf…53bebacked Thunder48c156,203$74,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,977.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nuggets51c131,069$67,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,946.931,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Nuggets53c40,744$21,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,149.9329650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Thunder53c40,109$21,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,205.117251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Thunder47c28,500$13,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,39511653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Nuggets51c26,805$13,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,065.1332653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder50c22,966$11,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,474.922,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Thunder48c15,520$7,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,449.67240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Nuggets52c15,487$8,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,433.7638251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder50c15,054$7,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,478.74,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Nuggets50c12,135$6,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,067.524053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Nuggets50c8,922$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,421.571855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d72…8f96backed Nuggets47c8,827$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,666.84977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+46.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Nuggets49c6,248$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,187.8449246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder49c5,177$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.672,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Thunder53c5,100$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.9964651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Thunder51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Thunder50c4,860$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,43065750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Thunder49c4,193$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.454953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Nuggets53c4,149$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.8317551.4%90 W · 85 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Nuggets53c4,031$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.572,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Nuggets46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Thunder53c3,985$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.8950653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Nuggets47c3,967$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.259053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Thunder52c3,786$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.7541553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Nuggets47c3,241$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.061,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder53c3,200$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.4189050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Nuggets48c2,623$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.8829055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Nuggets49c2,537$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.3234854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets48c2,502$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.663,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Thunder52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0403745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Thunder50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010847.2%51 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets49c1,765$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.024,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Nuggets53c1,566$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.871,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets47c1,461$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.396,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder49c1,384$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.154,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6b…c15fbacked Nuggets49c1,379$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.071675%12 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+45.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked Nuggets48c1,077$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.088647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Nuggets47c1,075$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.212,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Nuggets53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Nuggets53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47011044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Nuggets47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53026640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Thunder48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafdb…62cbbacked Thunder52c993.85$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Thunder47c962.66$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.4544352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Nuggets53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.41,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets52c900.01$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.93,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Nuggets50c807.1$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.114450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Nuggets46c799.97$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.9884342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Nuggets53c731$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.571,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder50c696.15$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.085,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x322f…65a5backed Nuggets48c669.49$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.4911943.7%52 W · 67 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Thunder48c604.44$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.131,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Nuggets52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28823644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Nuggets45c599.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.9949345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets49c575.75$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.758,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Thunder55c452.32$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets50c419.62$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8151753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Thunder47c418$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4637842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Nuggets48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.678439.3%33 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets47c400.33$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.171,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e2…5ec0backed Thunder55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Thunder51c399.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20489853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Nuggets52c385$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.821045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7b3…911fbacked Thunder54c384.89$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.84875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder47c381$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.071,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Nuggets53c376.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3665649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Nuggets46c363.83$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4762744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets46c331.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.51,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nuggets48c310.38$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.822,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Nuggets47c306.59$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.9187453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Nuggets48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15642348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder52c298.8$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3891148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Thunder47c293.57$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13823850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b60…7508backed Thunder53c281.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21a3…8278backed Thunder54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce5…02b3backed Nuggets53c270$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Nuggets46c263.27$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.8345646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fa…12d0backed Nuggets47c244.02$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0215357.5%88 W · 65 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Thunder6c231.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.955751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed Nuggets48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3310849.1%53 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Nuggets48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3332347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Nuggets49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0811157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Nuggets46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10895548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc74d…8acabacked Thunder51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014344.1%63 W · 80 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed Thunder52c156.26$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.316052.5%84 W · 76 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Nuggets51c152.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.21,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Thunder53c150.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Thunder32c147.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7137848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Thunder55c137.36$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8876552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9675…6bf3backed Thunder26c133.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.318944.9%40 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Nuggets46c132$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2856547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Thunder55c127.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.221,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed Thunder54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6027462%170 W · 104 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0439…3f80backed Nuggets52c105.38$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.258742.5%37 W · 50 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x43f9…2c69backed Nuggets48c104.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.225356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81b0…5159backed Thunder48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Nuggets48c104.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1654549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x666f…9860backed Nuggets52c103$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.216055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.