NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe510535ed0a5973339b5cfb1a6346e74300fefcae88dde1490040a18acca08b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Thunder | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Nuggets | 48c | 5,342$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.54 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Thunder | 50c | 3,703$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.31 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…4961backed Nuggets | 50c | 3,664$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.9 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 51c | 1,567$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.36 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Thunder | 23c | 1,033$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.78 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Nuggets | 47c | 981.4$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.55 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Thunder | 52c | 847.69$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Thunder | 14c | 661.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 48c | 627$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Nuggets | 49c | 613.82$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.05 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…8732backed Nuggets | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Thunder | 53c | 592.46$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nuggets | 48c | 485.15$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.28 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder | 8c | 407.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Nuggets | 47c | 405.19$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nuggets | 38c | 363.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.18 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Nuggets | 41c | 304$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.28 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…019cbacked Thunder | 65c | 302.66$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.62 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…a073backed Thunder | 63c | 300.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Nuggets | 63c | 286.69$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 15c | 267.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044a…7408backed Nuggets | 71c | 229.49$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e2…a4c4backed Thunder | 52c | 219.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 37c | 215.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked Nuggets | 49c | 209.36$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Nuggets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Thunder | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Thunder | 50c | 199.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder | 57c | 193$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Thunder | 53c | 188.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Nuggets | 48c | 178$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets | 44c | 164.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Nuggets | 40c | 154.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…6010backed Nuggets | 48c | 104.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5e…87d1backed Nuggets | 63c | 102.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Thunder | 18c | 100.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Nuggets | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Nuggets | 55c | 94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…adafbacked Thunder | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…1139backed Nuggets | 31c | 75.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 51c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…2806backed Nuggets | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Nuggets | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Thunder | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Thunder | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Nuggets | 56c | 53.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Nuggets | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…5159backed Thunder | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Thunder | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Nuggets | 80c | 46.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6bf3backed Thunder | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…0230backed Thunder | 79c | 36.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…a57bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 36.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0398…70c5backed Thunder | 67c | 29.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…a8e5backed Nuggets | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 117 | 32.5%38 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.