NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd80c3b43884f33205af771a1fb2bc322ea49c0fbf1c8e272d3ff820e1b86b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 55c | 1,786$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.48 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 1,166$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.18 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 47c | 975$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.25 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 770.25$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 64c | 415.63$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 413.91$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 45c | 376.29$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.44 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 352.17$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.81 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 47c | 319.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 306.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 55c | 306.29$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Under | 66c | 304.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 298.35$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 256.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 50c | 240.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 20c | 232.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.31 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 229.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 48c | 220.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.54 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 36c | 215.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Under | 50c | 200.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 37c | 192.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.31 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…d8f4backed Over | 78c | 174.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 50c | 170.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…6bf3backed Under | 72c | 154.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 35c | 152.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1699backed Under | 74c | 147.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…7301backed Over | 30c | 118$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 36c | 113.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 103.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 71c | 83.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…ff78backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…aea9backed Over | 51c | 58.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 79c | 51.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 31c | 46.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…8910backed Over | 43c | 46.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Over | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 58c | 45.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 53c | 45.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…ccf7backed Under | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 46c | 43.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ba…1ae8backed Under | 71c | 43.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 38c | 41.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…2c69backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…c8cabacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 48c | 33.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 28.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabaa…62a5backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 45c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe10d…3590backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…5f07backed Over | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…2c4bbacked Over | 50c | 21.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…ed8bbacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -14.6wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…6bf0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5this page
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.