NBA · resolved market
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab560e140cc9e788aeeee5dcd48e882ce62102299ee07aa810536953f9ce3721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 64c | 3,341$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.29 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Yes | 37c | 2,291$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.26 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,192$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.95 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Yes | 32c | 941.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 69c | 808.55$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.87 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…4eb0backed Yes | 36c | 453.09$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 69c | 447.8$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.04 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 55c | 350.87$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.72 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…8f2bbacked Yes | 36c | 241.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…b69fbacked Yes | 29c | 234.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 65c | 227.17$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.27 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…e0cbbacked Yes | 36c | 147.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0769…c7ecbacked Yes | 32c | 135$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed No | 63c | 114.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 36c | 88.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 53c | 68.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…6179backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…ccf7backed Yes | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…3ca1backed Yes | 42c | 47.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa330…fa37backed Yes | 44c | 45.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 33c | 44.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 56c | 39.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 66c | 36.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5this page
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.