Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a05a4d8813ba74fd99ad52ded2f274c91eed987664df69b62f8367092b281a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 962.92$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 632.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 389.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 8c | 374.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 317.55$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 22c | 293.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 292.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 280.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 267.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 12c | 264.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 256.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 256.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 224.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 9c | 217.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 77c | 197.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 189.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 16c | 183.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 179.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 8c | 177.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 175.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 9c | 145.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 136.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 129.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 18c | 128.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 111.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Yes | 12c | 108.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 19c | 103.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 101.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 14c | 84.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 81.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 22c | 69.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 68.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 17c | 64.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 30c | 61.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 60.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 55.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…0d41backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 52.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…a3b6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 48.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 31c | 48.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 22c | 46.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 27c | 44.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 42.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 69c | 40.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…ebb1backed Yes | 34c | 38.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 68c | 36.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 33.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 38c | 31.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed No | 69c | 31.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 36c | 29.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed No | 73c | 28.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 76c | 27.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 73c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 78c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 69c | 24.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 71c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 75c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 71c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed No | 68c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 80c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 80c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.