TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa178…2112backed Yes66c2,963$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.4410184.2%85 W · 16 L+26.9wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+70.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No6c2,173$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No30c1,587$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.6186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c944.61$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No60c711.02$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.411,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd65a…6599backed No3c638.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31947.4%7 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No49c505.88$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.52,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No31c474.44$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5188628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes31c430.68$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.0413930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c387.54$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c372.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.527,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No38c331.01$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3643139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc3…bec9backed Yes32c320.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+179.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No65c266.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.121,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes36c260.54$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.951,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes73c260.09$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2754143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes40c254.36$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.381,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No53c251.17$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5416432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No18c233.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9734617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c225.33$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes75c214.58$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c198.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.424,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No66c188.45$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5411874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No30c169.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5218530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes47c167.72$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0832548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes24c157.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.497659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7745…230bbacked Yes29c157.96$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.47887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+88.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf88…3ed6backed No61c150$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No67c144.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.682458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c141.96$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.812,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c134.95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.899,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c133.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.164,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c125.29$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.431,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes75c124.22$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.411,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes39c122.37$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8526434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5b…dec2backed Yes54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x690b…9145backed No46c113.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.221513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No32c112.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.282,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes36c110.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes43c110.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5830141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7233…ff3ebacked No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2c…a3b6backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c99.97$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.981,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2512…9030backed Yes80c99.66$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.327045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab82…a0dcbacked Yes40c99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.611070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+68.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes31c92.3$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.091833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No56c86.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.783,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No32c84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0726327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2af7…570dbacked Yes67c77.82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.832462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No68c77.69$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.779176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed No20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes34c73.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.531029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a5…e23cbacked No70c72.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.931145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.134748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes36c69.27$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5424542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes41c68.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.242250%11 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+56%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No65c68.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.478969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No68c64.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb701…8c1bbacked No68c63.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5812070.8%85 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No20c60.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No65c60.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9726566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No29c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6857232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No64c59.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes42c58.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c58.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7527167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No22c57.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7116046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes34c57.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.761,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c55.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c53.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.587,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4044945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.915937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…9c5ebacked Yes30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e6…6168backed Yes43c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes37c49.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c49.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No60c47.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8128648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No71c46.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes37c45.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.941,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes63c45.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.87946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes43c45.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.932,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No66c43.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3322675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6af…fc2fbacked No68c42.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.043164.5%20 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes34c41.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6555538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes71c41.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.127959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.642253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No67c39.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6913059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x322e…a2cebacked Yes36c39.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.049433%31 W · 63 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x174c…4351backed Yes38c38.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.286028.3%17 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No62c38.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8648672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes77c37.49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6716157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes29c37.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.31643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes41c37.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2210537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No31c36.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1716639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0da5…b55fbacked Yes66c36.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.442835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No68c35.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8311652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No67c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No63c34.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8617066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.