TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c788.65$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.56,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cbe…c9e4backed Yes6c612.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.77728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed Yes2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11631.6%1 W · 62 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Yes2c599.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11735.5%4 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+161.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes21c334.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.351,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c332.14$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes11c261$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1626327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes22c226.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No77c195.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.576767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes23c188.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3226434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes22c187.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3431029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe928…3b65backed No42c171.01$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes56c168$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.813652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb2…640cbacked No40c149.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c149.55$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes14c148.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.751,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes17c139.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.361,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked No40c137.57$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.813842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes18c131.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.248,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce6…72d5backed No69c124$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.44580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No40c117.04$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8914961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6205…577abacked No41c116.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No58c115.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.588628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No72c113.41$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.031,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No69c106.45$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.11,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No47c105.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes57c99.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes52c97.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1112932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c39…74a8backed Yes56c95.66$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No63c94.46$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.161,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes21c91.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.033,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb822…1422backed No66c84.09$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.882969%20 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes55c82$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No60c79.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.647361.6%45 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes18c75.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No43c67.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3949854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No57c67.23$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No42c59.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4418041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed No43c58.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3317358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c57.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c55.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.434,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No68c54.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes53c53.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5923673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes52c53.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.971833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No46c51.41$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.769943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4946…9c5ebacked Yes59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6f…d78bbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7745…230bbacked No44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+88.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6944…3902backed Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x364f…562cbacked Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262050%10 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412828.1%36 W · 92 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab82…a0dcbacked No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+68.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes59c49.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2111956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes26c45.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9133243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No72c45.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.771,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No53c44.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.047,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes42c44.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8515047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x322e…a2cebacked Yes30c39.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.019433%31 W · 63 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes59c39.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3142253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No73c36.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes30c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59530.5%29 W · 66 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2982…60ddbacked No55c34.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.64254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No40c34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.292,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes43c33.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5717138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes50c33.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.611,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb4…98e9backed Yes42c32.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.851241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No47c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4322344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No50c28.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3211925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes60c28.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.012,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x376a…d270backed No57c26.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.244889.6%43 W · 5 L+14.9wins+0.31per pick59cpaid+78%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes56c26.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.551,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No46c25.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1427648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No45c24.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.361,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes60c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.472466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No72c20.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbae0…6278backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No72c18.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2176371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No69c15.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No76c14.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.65,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No77c12.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9241460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.