Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a493c0ecc5419f847cd445323d771cf2a24bd4411a278ec0ca177bdd5efa9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1375…a070backed Over | 34c | 7,904$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…53f2backed Under | 66c | 7,904$5,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…0782backed Under | 56c | 1,835$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.41 | 1,322 | 53.2%703 W · 619 L | +36.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…fdf9backed Under | 60c | 1,140$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.29 | 526 | 50.8%267 W · 259 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 44c | 1,049$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.53 | 226 | 36.7%83 W · 143 L | -16.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Over | 39c | 800$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 257 | 51%131 W · 126 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Under | 65c | 779.13$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.19 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…b0c5backed Over | 43c | 528.27$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.51 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Under | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 45c | 394.21$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.08 | 1,728 | 29.5%509 W · 1,219 L | -123.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Over | 35c | 257.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…6718backed Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 71 | 69%49 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…f49dbacked Over | 37c | 190$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 383 | 35%134 W · 249 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…a1c0backed Over | 35c | 165.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 28c | 165.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…6017backed Over | 39c | 143$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…054cbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Over | 32c | 116.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 391 | 52.2%204 W · 187 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…1a19backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 380 | 34.7%132 W · 248 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…d531backed Over | 34c | 83.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…61dcbacked Under | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 521 | 51.8%270 W · 251 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 52c | 55.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 2,311 | 39.4%910 W · 1,401 L | -83.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 44c | 55.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,924 | 35.9%691 W · 1,233 L | -97.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Over | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 397 | 49.1%195 W · 202 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…41b0backed Over | 61c | 48.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 480 | 42.3%203 W · 277 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…cf66backed Over | 40c | 39.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c7…264fbacked Under | 62c | 38.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 280 | 40%112 W · 168 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…40bbbacked Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 67c | 32.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 49c | 31.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…28debacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc4…9307backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- First Blood in Game 1?DN Freecs won
- First Blood in Game 2?Dplus KIA won
- Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs DN Freecs (+1.5)Dplus KIA won
- Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs DN Freecs (+2.5)DN Freecs won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup PlayoffsDplus KIA won
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 1 WinnerDplus KIA won
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 2 WinnerDplus KIA won
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 3 WinnerDN Freecs won
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers - Game 4 WinnerDplus KIA won
- Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 4?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 4?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 4?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.