TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dplus KIAof Dplus KIA, DN Freecs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$521,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$677,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd5fc…d802backed DN Freecs1c41,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-90.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Dplus KIA64c31,482$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,481.6125751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed DN Freecs5c11,367$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.6176639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DN Freecs39c10,957$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,229.541,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd7…211cbacked DN Freecs42c10,000$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1501741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb03f…9429backed DN Freecs3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9814324.5%35 W · 108 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Dplus KIA61c9,504$5,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,738.3618961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked DN Freecs39c7,000$2,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,761.057045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked DN Freecs2c5,945$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.856347.1%45 W · 589 L-1.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Dplus KIA41c5,555$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.4423447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Dplus KIA60c5,130$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.333,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed DN Freecs32c5,060$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.0941644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DN Freecs39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95082452.7%434 W · 390 L+41.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed DN Freecs18c5,000$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.2351748.2%249 W · 268 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Dplus KIA78c4,856$3,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.3214757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed DN Freecs29c4,741$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.241,81339.1%709 W · 1,104 L-30.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked DN Freecs17c4,721$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.951,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc840…16d6backed DN Freecs7c4,500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295422.4%1 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-92.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked DN Freecs33c4,331$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.252,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Dplus KIA53c3,798$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.643151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed DN Freecs40c3,789$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50018945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed DN Freecs31c3,731$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.6316040%64 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed DN Freecs32c3,500$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11648440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed DN Freecs54c3,490$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.1652750.9%268 W · 259 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed DN Freecs49c3,474$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.7167276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed DN Freecs30c3,351$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.22,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Dplus KIA65c3,342$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.731,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed DN Freecs28c3,298$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.081,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed DN Freecs4c3,143$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Dplus KIA64c3,142$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.3337344%164 W · 209 L-16.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed DN Freecs28c3,057$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8651,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ad…4c93backed Dplus KIA71c2,773$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.262958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed DN Freecs38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024147.3%114 W · 127 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Dplus KIA80c2,630$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.9670462.1%437 W · 267 L-38.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed DN Freecs38c2,600$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.981,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed DN Freecs20c2,520$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049852%51 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Dplus KIA42c2,494$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.9269756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked DN Freecs31c2,251$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.631,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Dplus KIA66c2,193$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.898056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Dplus KIA60c2,167$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.6724750.6%125 W · 122 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed DN Freecs36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201,07147.1%504 W · 567 L+2.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Dplus KIA51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98014041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a94…5e99backed DN Freecs41c1,994$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.834443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-30.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked DN Freecs40c1,942$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.3353640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked DN Freecs18c1,874$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.3466437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf14…502abacked DN Freecs4c1,838$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed DN Freecs53c1,800$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94817744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed DN Freecs40c1,790$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.4239851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd01…d5acbacked Dplus KIA60c1,751$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.5524858.1%144 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed Dplus KIA60c1,726$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.7124065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked DN Freecs24c1,657$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.381,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Dplus KIA60c1,633$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.3579653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Dplus KIA62c1,616$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.7518755.1%103 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DN Freecs32c1,578$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.221,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed DN Freecs37c1,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55046339.5%183 W · 280 L-37.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Dplus KIA48c1,496$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.4342050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Dplus KIA64c1,260$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.5651852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Dplus KIA71c1,225$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.8185942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Dplus KIA60c1,171$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.321,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed DN Freecs1c1,136$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7521233%70 W · 142 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Dplus KIA59c1,101$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.4178549.9%392 W · 393 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Dplus KIA60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40038662.2%240 W · 146 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed DN Freecs42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201,18444.4%526 W · 658 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc4…2396backed DN Freecs2c999.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-49.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed DN Freecs14c987.79$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5221819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed DN Freecs38c981.02$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.7985746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed DN Freecs15c974.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9111037.3%41 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Dplus KIA58c973.53$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.881,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked DN Freecs41c970.73$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39815731.2%49 W · 108 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Dplus KIA63c952.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3831949.8%159 W · 160 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed DN Freecs22c940.27$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3543539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec02…3dd1backed Dplus KIA76c927.7$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0514049.3%69 W · 71 L-22.3wins-0.16per pick65cpaid-29%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7274…054cbacked Dplus KIA60c912.24$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.513330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Dplus KIA59c847$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.271,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed DN Freecs25c811.55$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed DN Freecs3c805.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2612927.9%36 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed DN Freecs18c800$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1447889.8%77 W · 711 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0002…103ebacked DN Freecs45c800$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3589743.3%42 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9de…90ebbacked DN Freecs23c762.81$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.631631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed DN Freecs41c737.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30045041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked DN Freecs42c720$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.42,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed DN Freecs24c700$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16542924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Dplus KIA59c700$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2872343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked DN Freecs29c699.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051,01349.1%497 W · 516 L+29.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed DN Freecs27c699.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9968443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d98…7e3fbacked DN Freecs45c698.44$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.32254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed DN Freecs30c668.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Dplus KIA80c666.23$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2539152.2%204 W · 187 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Dplus KIA59c634.19$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.021,00554%543 W · 462 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked DN Freecs55c625.42$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.9896057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed DN Freecs40c625$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25027256.6%154 W · 118 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed DN Freecs40c609$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6243947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2f…552cbacked DN Freecs27c600$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3616349.7%81 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked DN Freecs46c595$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.212,33039.4%919 W · 1,411 L-83.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed Dplus KIA60c554$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1416045.6%73 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Dplus KIA64c550$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19868049%333 W · 347 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Dplus KIA53c524.66$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.3114644.5%65 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed DN Freecs35c500$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17618944.4%84 W · 105 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed DN Freecs4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205873.6%21 W · 566 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+176.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39bb…9e51backed DN Freecs41c500$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.518149.2%89 W · 92 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.